i-Delphi - History and Core Elements

<body bgcolor="#86aad0"> <table border="0" cellpadding=5 cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td width=15%></td> <td width=10%></td> <td width="*"> <p align="center" valign="middle"> <font face="Arial" size="6"><b><img border="0" src="images/logd42.gif" width="229" height="42"></b></font> </td> <td width=10%></td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" align="left"> <font face="Arial" size="1"> <p><b>Click for desired page</b></p> <p><a href="xtour01.htm">Overview</a></p> <p><b>Early history and core elements of the Delphi method</b></p> <p><a href="xtour03.htm">Delphi's second stage of development</a></p> <p><a href="xtour04.htm">Delphi enhanced for the new millennium</a></p> <p><a href="xtour05.htm">Understanding the Delphi method</a></p> <p><a href="xtour06.htm">About the i-Delphi system</a></p> <p><a href="xtour07.htm">i-Delphi services</a></p> <p><a href="xtour08.htm">i-Delphi compared to other methods</a></p> <p><a href="xtour10.htm">For more information</a></p> <p><a href="index.asp">Return to home page</a></p> </font> </td> <td bgcolor="#FFFFFF">     </td> <td bgcolor="#FFFFFF" valign="top" align="left"> <p align="center" valign="top"> <br> <br> <font font face="Arial" size="4"><b>Early History of the Delphi Method</b></font> <P><font face="Arial" size="3">The Delphi method was invented by RAND Corporation in the mid 1960's. Its early uses were to help the Defense Department improve (1) </font><font face="Arial">forecasts of potential adversaries and likely trouble spots and (2) </font><font face="Arial" size="3"> decisions as to which new weapons systems should be developed in light of those forecasts.</font><P><font face="Arial">The Delphi method's central concepts were established in the first projects. Briefly, here's how they were conducted:</font> <table border="0" cellpadding="0"> <TBODY> <tr><td width="5%" valign="top" align="left"><font face="Arial"> </font></td><i><td width="*"></td><td width="5%"></td></tr></I> <tr><td valign="top" align="left"><font face="Arial">1.</font></td> <td><font face="Arial">A diverse panel, including experts in relevant fields, was nominated and recruited;</font></td> <i> <td></td></tr></I> <tr><td valign="top" align="left"><font face="Arial"> </font></td></tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="left"><font face="Arial">2.</font></td> <td><font face="Arial">Each panel member received by mail a kit containing background on the topics at issue and a questionnaire designed to elicit their predictions, opinions, reasons, comments, and suggestions for additional questions.  Panelists were assured their responses would be anonymous;</font></td><i><td></td></tr></I> <tr><td valign="top" align="left"><font face="Arial"> </font></td></tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="left"><font face="Arial">3.</font></td> <td><font face="Arial">Questionnaires were mailed back to RAND Corporation. Tabulations, summaries of textual answers, reasons, and comments were prepared. That information and a second-round questionnaire were mailed to panelists. They were asked to respond in light of results from the first round. That usually involved both reassessing previous answers and addressing added issues;</font> </td><i><td></td></tr></I> <tr><td valign="top" align="left"></td> <td> </td><td><font face="Arial"> </font></td></tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="left"><font face="Arial">4.</font></td> <td><font face="Arial">Additional rounds were conducted until it became clear that the group's outlook had stabilized and significant further movement would be unlikely.</font> </td><td></td></tr> <tr><td valign="top" align="left"><font face="Arial"> </font></td></tr></TBODY> </table><font face="Arial"> RAND Corporation was able to demonstrate that better forecasts were reached using Delphi than any other method. </font> <font face="Arial" size="3"> Since then, thousands of projects have proven that Delphi is the technique of choice for arriving at superior analyses, policies, and operating decisions.</font> <div align="center"> <table border="0" cellpadding="5"> <tr><td> <div align="center"> <center> <table border="0" cellpadding="5"> <tr> </tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#c0c0c0" valign="center" align="middle"><font color="#ff0000" size="3" face="Arial"> <A href="xtour03.htm">Next page</A> </font></td> </tr> </table> </center> </div> </td></tr> </table> <p align="left"><font face="Arial" size="1">  <br>Please note that this version of these pages was prepared for browsers which, like the one you're using now, lack frame-handling capability. Full access to this website and participation in <b>i-Delphi</b> projects require a frames-capable browser, such as a recent version of Internet Explorer or Netscape.</font> <p align="left">  <p align="left">  </div> </td> <td bgcolor="#FFFFFF">  </td> </tr> </table> </body>